New actor enters Boris’ programme…

…well several actors in fact.

First of all his original programme to brexit yesterday’s deadline#3 , 31st October,  is dead in the water.

The new programme is to brexit as soon as possible.  Certainly before deadline #4 January 31st.

To achieve this he needed to persuade several new actors to join the programme and to eliminate a few more.

First the actor possible no deal Brexit was eliminated.

Then the actor 2/3 parliamentary majority was mobilised.

This was necessary to activate the actor general election on 12th December. This is Boris’ new actor.

He hopes this election will engender a future actor called big Conservative majority in parliament, which will enable Boris to get his Brexit deal #2 (Brexit deal#1, agreed by Theresa May in 2018, was never accepted by the Parliament, forcing her to resign as Prime Minister) passed and give him 5 years of smooth sailing.

There are some anti programmes!

At the moment all the other political parties are in the anti-programme. If all of them put together win a majority of seats in parliament then Boris may not become prime minister.

Unless…

He makes some kind of a deal – a Leave Alliance – with the Brexit Party, whose leader, Nigel Farage, wants the Prime Minister to drop Johnson’s recent Brexit deal#2 and replace it with a very « hard » Brexit deal #3 before 1 July 2020. Farage calls Boris’ Brexit deal #2 the Surrender Treaty,  and his Brexit deal#3 he calls No deal.

If not…

Farage promises that there will be 500+ Brexit Party candidates in every parliamentary constituency who will take votes away from the Conservative Party candidates, which will make it easier for the other parties (Labour Party, Liberal Democrat Party, Scottish Nationalist Party, Plaid Cymru (Welsh) Party, etc.) to win even more seats and probably defeat the Conservative Party.

An important actor called marginal seats is involved here. This is a parliamentary seat where the vote will be very close and a small shift could make the Conservative Party (or Labour Party) lose the seat.  Without the Brexit Alliance the Brexit Party’s 500 candidates will endanger Conservative Party marginal seats. With the Brexit Alliance the Brexit Party will focus its candidates on Labour Party marginal seats. This will help the Conservative Party win more seats.

If there is no Brexit Alliance and the Conservative Party loses many marginal seats on December 12th, then Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the Labour Party will probably become Prime Minister and he has promised to negotiate a « soft » Brexit deal #4 before the summer. Then there will be a new Referendum #2 (Referendum#1 you remember was in June 2016) with 2 options: Brexit Deal#4 or No Brexit.

So…

Boris’ new actor general election on December 12th may, in fact, replace the actor Brexit with the actor No Brexit.

We will try to track this programme-antiprogramme in the coming days, weeks and months!

 

A propos markowskikrys

I run an advanced Masters programme on project management and innovation at ESIEE
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